Up to date 2022 Mexico Open Odds & Picks for Aaron Sensible, Sebastian Munoz Amongst High Targets

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2022 Mexico Open Odds

Golfer Odds
Rahm, Jon +400
Woodland, Gary +2000
Ancer, Abraham +2000
Finau, Tony +2200
Sensible, Aaron +2500
Tringale, Cameron +2500
Munoz, Sebastian +2800
Na, Kevin +2800
Kirk, Chris +2800
Reed, Patrick +2800
Todd, Brendon +3300
Streelman, Kevin +4000
Knox, Russell +4000
Howell III, Charles +4000
Ghim, Doug +4500
Champ, Cameron +4500
Hubbard, Mark +5000
Rai, Aaron +5000
Jones, Matt +5000
Lengthy, Adam +5000
Moore, Taylor +5500
Riley, Davis +6000
Pan, C.T. +6600
Stallings, Scott +6600
Ortiz, Carlos +6600
Perez, Pat +6600
Griffin, Lanto +6600
Ramey, Chad +7000
Theegala, Sahith +7000
Duncan, Tyler +8000
Poston, J.T. +8000
Lipsky, David +8000
Piercy, Scott +8000
Smalley, Alex +8000
Sigg, Greyson +9000
Rodgers, Patrick +9000
Lahiri, Anirban +9000
Clark, Wyndham +9000
Thompson, Michael +10000
Hickok, Kramer +10000
Streb, Robert +10000
Seiffert, Chase +10000
Bramlett, Joseph +10000
Taylor, Nick +10000
Whaley, Vincent +10000
Lee, Danny +10000
Wu, Dylan +10000
Lashley, Nate +10000
Lebioda, Hank +10000
Garnett, Brice +10000
Wu, Brandon +10000
Svensson, Adam +10000
Stuard, Brian +10000
Armour, Ryan +12500
Putnam, Andrew +12500
Smotherman, Austin +12500
Hahn, James +12500
Grillo, Emiliano +12500
Schenk, Adam +12500
Tarren, Callum +15000
Haas, Invoice +15000
Uihlein, Peter +15000
Taylor, Vaughn +15000
Novak, Andrew +15000
Huh, John +15000
Decrease, Justin +15000
Martin, Ben +15000
Hoag, Bo +15000
Kitayama, Kurt +15000
Gutschewski, Scott +15000
Hodges, Lee +15000
McDowell, Graeme +15000
Malnati, Peter +15000
Sloan, Roger +15000
Cabrera-Bello, Rafa +15000
Mullinax, Trey +17500
Reavie, Chez +20000
Wallace, Matt +20000
Donald, Luke +20000
Byrd, Jonathan +20000
Baddeley, Aaron +20000
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech +20000
Brown, Scott +20000
Buckley, Hayden +20000
Villegas, Camilo +20000
Wolfe, Jared +20000
Bryan, Wesley +20000
Werenski, Richy +20000
Thompson, Curtis +20000
Tway, Kevin +20000
Kohles, Ben +20000
Jaeger, Stephan +20000
Seung-Yul Noh +20000
Skinns, David +25000
Barjon, Paul +25000
Hagy, Brandon +25000
Dufner, Jason +25000
Flavin, Patrick +25000
Reeves, Seth +30000
Diaz, Roberto +35000
McGreevy, Max +35000
Blaum, Ryan +35000
Sung Kang +35000
Prepare dinner, Austin +35000
Gligic, Michael +35000
Kodaira, Satoshi +35000
Gomez, Fabian +35000
Nimmer, Bryson +35000
Wagner, Johnson +50000
Kraft, Kelly +50000
Drewitt, Brett +50000
Trahan, D.J. +50000
Atwal, Arjun +50000
Lingmerth, David +50000
Ernst, Derek +50000
Coach, Martin +50000
Murray, Grayson +50000
Chalmers, Greg +50000
Johnson, Richard S. +50000
Garrigus, Robert +50000
Ortiz, Alvaro +50000
Hearn, David +50000
Bae, Sangmoon +50000
Knous, Jim +50000
van der Walt, Dawie +50000
Gainey, Tommy +50000
Creel, Joshua +50000
Hensby, Mark +50000
van Pelt, Bo +50000
De la Fuente, Santiago +100000
Each, Matt +100000
Blixt, Jonas +100000
Pettit, Turk +100000
Barnes, Ricky +100000
Pettit, Turk +100000
Barnes, Ricky +100000

Oh, the irony of a brand new match on the PGA TOUR schedule being hosted on a Greg Norman signature course.

The Mexico Open has been contested since 1944, but it surely makes its debut on the sport’s most elite circuit this week at Vidanta Vallarta, a course that was constructed not way back by the person now serving as CEO of a rival tour.

I’m not going to take care of that I personal a lot intimate data of this venue, so let’s stick to the info: It was inbuilt 2016 and performs to 7,456 yards as a par-71, suggesting it might need some tooth.

In keeping with a course description, “Paspalum grass covers your entire structure, which winds alongside the Ameca River and supplies views of the Sierra Madre mountains from virtually each gap.” It continues by providing, “The course has giant touchdown areas, however sandy waste areas and quite a few water hazards await to catch photographs that stray too far. The water additionally provides a strategic component to many holes, as do the bunkers [55 total] that dot the course.”

Additionally, and this one is much less reality than opinion: It appears downright lovely.

From the sound of it, size is extra advantageous than accuracy off the tee, and strategy photographs will probably be key – particularly from 175 or extra yards, hinting that we must always take into account the higher long- and mid-iron gamers in what’s a predictably weaker area.

If there’s one other trace for us, it’s that historically when the PGA TOUR travels to a brand new venue for what’s theoretically an annual occasion — not a one-timer — the powers-that-be will err on the aspect of warning when organising the golf course. The primary cause is that it’s troublesome to foretell whether or not 10-under or 25-under will win a match on the highest degree, however there’s at the very least an underlying subplot that beating up on among the world’s finest gamers isn’t precisely one of the best ways to get extra of ‘em to play that occasion in future years.

All of which is to say that whereas a near-7,500-yard par-71 seems like a brute, it’d wind up being extra scoreable than at first blush.

With that in thoughts, let’s get to the performs, that are eternally an inexact science, however even much less actual and fewer scientific for this one.

Outright Winner

One participant to win the match.

Aaron Sensible (+4000)

Very similar to we’ll hear from some NFL basic managers main as much as the draft, I’m going with some mixture of the “finest participant out there” and “large upside” theories right here. That’s to not counsel that Sensible has a brighter future than, say, pre-tourney favourite Jon Rahm, however they will’t all be No. 1 total picks, in the event you get what I imply.

Eschewing absolutely the prime of the board, Sensible is a participant I’ve been very bullish on since posting 5 finishes of twenty sixth or higher in 5 begins throughout the fall portion of this season’s schedule, although it hasn’t fairly come to fruition but this yr. Although he’s missed the reduce in half of his eight begins to this point, Sensible does personal a T17 and T21 amongst his final 4 appearances and a area with out most of golf’s elite seems like an ideal place for him to say a long-awaited second profession title.

Different OADers

Potential choices for one-and-done choices.

Sahith Theegala (+8000)

I’ve mentioned it so many instances over the previous few months, however you gained’t be getting present Theegala costs for for much longer, so maintain leaping on ‘em when you can.

I actually don’t thoughts him for outrights, props and DFS, however he may personal probably the most worth for OAD swimming pools, that are most likely leaving your less-researched poolsters scratching their heads over what to do in a brand new occasion with no historical past. The important thing phrase of the week simply is likely to be “upside,” as I’ve acknowledged above already. This can be a good week to play some guys you’ve been eyeing for some time, and Theegala actually makes that checklist for me.

Kevin Na (+2200)

My decide to win the RBC Heritage in his most up-to-date begin, Na actually has the stick-with-your-pick factor going this week, as he’s among the many extra embellished gamers on this week’s area. It additionally is smart to take him on a course the place mid-irons may get extra use, as he ranks thirtieth this season in strokes gained on photographs from 175 to 200 yards. That’s a standard theme all through this preview, as I’ve focused a handful of gamers who match this statistic.

Carlos Ortiz (+10000)

Watch out touring down Narrative Road this week. As you’ll see with my fade on the backside of this preview, a home-country benefit actually may not be a bonus in any respect. Ortiz is one in all a handful of Mexican gamers on this week’s area, which might imply extra strain than comfortability.

In fact, lacking the reduce in 4 straight begins is fairly uncomfortable, too, though I virtually like Ortiz higher — I actually like his odds higher — when he’s taking part in with nothing to lose, quite than using a heater going into this one.

High-5

One participant to complete top-5.

Sebastian Munoz (+600 for top-5)

Full disclosure: It basically got here right down to a coin flip for my fave outright play between Sensible and Munoz, and the truth is that I’ll have an funding in every participant on a couple of totally different platforms.

Munoz will get the early-year Charles Howell III/Maverick McNealy good-but-not-great award, with all of his outcomes between twenty first and Thirty ninth over his previous half-dozen begins. Whereas most gamers insist they attempt for this type of consistency, one large efficiency and 5 stinkers are literally rewarded higher.

That mentioned, the kind of golf that has yielded these outcomes ought to depart him greater on the board this week, in opposition to a lesser area than any of these earlier ones. Once more, I’ll play him for a top-five, however don’t be afraid to sprinkle slightly on him for outrights, too.

High-10

One participant to complete top-10.

Gary Woodland (+210 for top-10)

Within the modern-day language of area commitments, we’re usually compelled to discern between a participant who “wants” to play a selected lesser occasion, whether or not for sponsor obligations or PIP considerations or in any other case, and one who merely desires to play, in an effort to proceed some momentum or discover some better win chance.

I believe Woodland suits the latter class. He nonetheless has a couple of years’ value of exemptions from his 2019 U.S. Open victory, however he’s possible taking part in as a result of he is aware of he can present up at this one and personal a greater probability of profitable than most different occasions. With three top-10s in his previous six begins, I like the worth of this prop, particularly on a course the place he can rip stingers and lengthy irons far and wide.

High-20

One participant to complete top-20.

Pat Perez (+275 for top-20)

The 46-year-old has joined my SiriusXM PGA TOUR present “Hitting the Inexperienced” a couple of instances just lately and continuously admits that he can’t look ahead to these three-round, no-cut occasions of PGA TOUR Champions.

The world’s most brutally sincere golfer has a couple of extra years left on the massive tour, although, and he’s not executed taking part in some respectable golf, particularly on a tropical resort course, like these the place he’s owned an honest quantity of success through the years. My preliminary play right here was Kevin Chappell, however after an early-week WD, I be ok with Perez as a top-20 alternative.

High-30

One participant to complete top-30.

Austin Smotherman

If you’re in search of one thing — something — to supply a cause to choose a participant this week, you’ll grasp on to any little piece of data.

Like this: Again in 2018, Smotherman not solely gained this very match when it was a PGA TOUR Latinoamerica occasion, he set the all-time scoring report with a four-round whole of 262.

That’s the excellent news. The dangerous information is that it’s hardly related, contemplating that tourney was held in Tijuana. I’m not terrific at Mexican geography, however I did a little bit of analysis and located that it’s some 1,363 miles from that course to this week’s venue — a few 24-hour automotive journey, in the event you’re not eager on stopping in any respect.

That mentioned, I nonetheless suppose Smotherman is a gifted younger rookie, so I’m not going to let slightly factor like being a full day’s automotive journey from some good vibes cease me from taking part in him right here.

High-40

One participant to complete top-40.

Ben Griffin

Digging deep right here, however Griffin may not be as a lot of a flier as he appears on the floor. A sponsor’s exemption on this week’s area, Griffin owns 4 top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour already this season, together with a pair of runner-up finishes which have propelled him from 1,744th on this planet rating at first of this yr to 364th proper now.

Contemplating this area is barely a small step up from the KFT circuit, there’s cause to consider he can maintain his personal in opposition to a gaggle of gamers which shouldn’t be too intimidating for a participant making simply his third profession PGA TOUR begin this week.

DFS Free Bingo Sq.

A protected plug-and-play possibility for DFS.

Tony Finau

Certain, I might’ve listed Rahm on this house, who’s most likely the last word free Bingo sq. on this occasion, although for some cause I’m getting some critical Fortinet Championship vibes from the erstwhile No. 1, referring to the season-opener the place he MC’d in a seemingly unusual scheduling determination one week earlier than the Ryder Cup.

As an alternative, I’ll go slightly deeper and supply up Finau, who ought to have comparable motivation to Woodland, basically utilizing this as a “get-right” week earlier than the ultimate three majors of the yr. With a Munoz-like report of 5 outcomes between twenty eighth and thirty fifth in his final seven begins, Finau is a high-floor play in higher fields however ought to personal an prolonged ceiling at this one, as nicely.

DFS ‘Canine

A lower-priced possibility for DFS.

Patrick Flavin

On most weeks, I write the vast majority of this column on Sunday night, then add some ending touches on Monday morning. Meaning I can’t save a spot for any potential Monday qualifiers.

Till this week, that’s, because the qualifier for this occasion was held one week earlier. Amongst those that made it into the sphere is Flavin, who will make his fourth PGA TOUR begin of the season. Within the earlier three, he’s completed T17, T22 and T54, suggesting that maybe all he wants is a long-term alternative to show he belongs on the very best degree.

Within the quick time period, he’ll play this week in a area corresponding to these different three, which suggests there’s worth on him to copy a consequence someplace between one of the best and worst of what he’s executed to this point. 

First-Spherical Chief

One participant to put up the low rating Thursday.

Peter Malnati (+10000 for FRL)

That is admittedly a really feel play, as a participant outdoors the top-100 in R1 scoring common this season doesn’t appear to personal an excessive amount of worth right here.

What I do like about Malnati, although – for this guess, at the very least – is that he tends to be an all-or-nothing kind of man. Final season, his Thursday scores ranged from a 62, a 63 and a pair of 65s to a few 78s and an 81; this season, that notion has manifested itself in three 67s, a 68 and three 69s, although nothing worse than a 75.

This isn’t one for the faint of coronary heart, however there’s actually some potential.

Matchup Man

One participant who ought to beat comparable gamers.

Kramer Hickok (+20000)

This class is normally reserved for individuals who make numerous cuts. As I usually write, these high-floor performs basically give us two possibilities to win H2H wagers each on Friday night and Sunday afternoon.

Hickok doesn’t fairly match that profile, as he’s MC’d as a lot as he’s chased this yr, however this ranks as simply one other upside play on a man who owns some worth and will have an honest week. Towards comparable fields, he’s owned a pleasant report over the previous couple of seasons. At this outright value, he’s value a play there, as nicely.

Additionally Receiving Votes

Different gamers who ought to present worth.

Chris Kirk (+3500), Russell Knox (+7000), Taylor Moore (+7000), Alex Smalley (+8000), J.T. Poston (+13000), Joseph Bramlett (+20000)

The Large Fade

One prime participant to keep away from at this match.

Abraham Ancer (+2500)

Keep in mind what I wrote about Narrative Road within the part on Ortiz? I’d count on Ancer to be a preferred play this week for a similar cause we have a tendency to focus on SEC grads in Southeast-based tourneys.

Carrying the flag of Mexico because the nation’s highest-ranked participant, these narratives might actually elevate him to some nice heights this week — or they might simply deliver extra strain.

Living proof: In three begins on the now-deceased WGC-Mexico Championship, Ancer completed 59th-Thirty ninth-Twelfth. He might actually flip round that report this week, however with no outcomes contained in the top-30 in his final eight stroke-play occasions on the PGA TOUR, there’s loads of cause to go away him off the cardboard right here.

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